Three Markets Polymarket Should Have
January 12, 2026
I noticed some markets Polymarket isn’t taking advantage of.
Here are three they should have but don’t. Full resolution rules. Edge cases. Everything.
Here’s why each one would work.
Market 1: FOMC Dot Plot
December 2024. The Fed cut rates exactly as expected. Equities sold off anyway.
The reason: the dot plot shifted hawkish.
The rate decision was the headline. The dot plot was the signal.
Polymarket did $239M on the January Fed decision alone. It’s one of their highest volume categories.
But there’s no coverage of the dot plot itself.
What’s interesting is that no one else has this either.
The dot plot is the Fed’s own self-reported forward guidance. It’s what institutions actually position around.
Resolution is straightforward.
The Fed publishes the Summary of Economic Projections alongside every rate decision. The median dot is a single value in a public PDF. No interpretation required.
The audience already exists. This just gives them a more precise instrument.
Eight meetings per year.
Market 2: Fed Balance Sheet
Earlier this year, Polymarket ran “Will Fed end QT before May?”
$6.2M in volume. Then it resolved.
Now there are zero active balance sheet markets.
The balance sheet is the liquidity signal. Expansion means more dollars in the system. Contraction means tightening. Traders and funds both watch this closely.
2025 had ongoing uncertainty: Would the Fed restart QE? Continue runoff? This is tradeable, but there’s currently no market to express a view on it.
The $6.2M in volume wasn’t incidental.
Resolution uses the same source Polymarket already validated.
The Fed publishes the H.4.1 release every Thursday. Total assets is a single line item. FRED tracks it in real-time.
Market 3: Three Mile Island / Crane NRC Approval
Search “nuclear” on Polymarket. Every result is about weapons. Iran, detonations, strikes.
Almost no coverage of nuclear energy.
Meanwhile:
- Microsoft signed an $800M PPA with Constellation to restart Three Mile Island
- The DOE issued a $1B loan
- This will be the first-ever restart of a decommissioned US nuclear plant
Constellation stock moves on every TMI headline. This is the defining energy infrastructure story tied to AI.
The right milestone to track is NRC approval. Specifically, authorization to load fuel.
Commercial operation depends on construction, weather, supply chain. Too many variables. But NRC approval is binary. It’s the regulatory unlock that de-risks the project.
Resolution is clean. NRC publishes licensing decisions in their ADAMS database. Constellation files 8-Ks with the SEC.
The audience for this is broader than it appears:
- AI infrastructure investors tracking data center power demand
- Nuclear sector watchers following the Palisades and SMR pipelines
- Constellation shareholders with regulatory exposure
Full Proposal
I’ve written up complete resolution rules, edge cases, and sources for each market.
Download the full proposal (PDF)