Kalshi Market Expansion

Standardized bracket markets opened immediately after the prior earnings release, resolving against the following reported EPS. Bracket widths could be calibrated with metrics like analyst consensus estimates, historical EPS data, and implied volatility from the options market.

Start with mega-caps where attention is the highest and expand from there as the format proves out. Thinking about just the S&P 500, that's 2,000 earnings events per year from a single template.

Every retail and institutional trader follows earnings. It's the single highest-attention recurring event in equity markets and there's zero coverage of it.

You can also naturally extend each earnings event beyond just EPS. Revenue beat/miss, forward guidance direction (raised/maintained/lowered), post-earnings move magnitude brackets.

You can expand the exact template that already exists to hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual and apply it across any index as a whole category. Starting with S&P, Nasdaq, Russell, Dow, then extending to international indices like FTSE, Nikkei, DAX.

From there you expand the same structure to popular ETFs like sector plays (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV). Traders already know these tickers so there's built-in familiarity.

A trader could express a view on a single company across its earnings, its stock price direction, and multiple time horizons all on one platform.

Once this system is built, every new underlying that gets added, whether it's an index, ETF, or individual ticker, automatically inherits the full time horizon suite rather than being designed ad hoc. That's what makes it scalable.

FX is the largest financial market in the world and Kalshi has two pairs with daily brackets. If you're an FX trader and the platform offers you two pairs with daily brackets only, there's nothing to build around.

The proof that demand exists when the product is right: USD/BRL has a 2026 high market sitting at over $500K in volume.

Build out the systematic framework across major pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD with daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly close brackets using the same standardized template. The template already exists so extending to the other majors is format replication with different price feeds. It costs almost nothing to stand up relative to the upside.

From there expand into emerging market pairs like USD/MXN, USD/BRL, USD/ZAR which are entirely absent despite the BRL proof point. In the current trade policy environment EM currencies are some of the most actively discussed instruments in global markets.

These also naturally cross-sell with central bank decision markets already on the platform. The point is that the second an event hits, whether it's a tariff announcement, a central bank surprise, or an EM currency crisis, the markets are already live and traders have somewhere to go. Those moments generate massive spikes but only if the product is already there.

Kalshi's first tier of macro data is well covered with CPI, GDP, NFP, unemployment. But there's another tier of data releases that traders and macro desks position around week to week that aren't on the platform yet.

These releases all share the same characteristics as the ones already working. They move markets every month, they have clean government or institutional data sources, and they fit the exact same bracket format proven on CPI.

The infrastructure for creating and resolving all of these already exists. CPI proved the format works. These are just additional data feeds that plug into that same system.

The broader play is global expansion. Kalshi already has international GDP, unemployment, and central bank markets for over 10 countries. The natural extension is to systematize this so every macro data type that generates volume in the US gets the same coverage for major economies. This creates a network effect where markets cross-sell each other. A trader who comes for U.S. CPI discovers Brazilian unemployment, which leads them to BRL and the Selic decision. Every new market feeds attention into existing ones and the whole category compounds.

Treasuries are one of the deepest, most actively traded markets in the world and Kalshi has almost no coverage. The 2-year yield, the single best proxy for rate expectations and arguably the most watched number in fixed income, is entirely absent.

Kalshi has solid energy coverage at the surface level with gas prices, WTI crude weekly brackets, etc. But the weekly data layer that actually moves these markets has zero coverage. The price markets are there, the fundamental data releases that drive those prices aren't. And natural gas doesn't exist on the platform at all.

This is already Kalshi's strongest vertical by a wide margin. The core decision event is well covered and well traded. The proposals here aren't rebuilds, they're extensions into the surrounding Fed data ecosystem that doesn't exist on the platform yet.

The biggest opportunity is SEP projection markets. Every quarter the Fed publishes the Summary of Economic Projections with median year-end fed funds rate, GDP, unemployment, and PCE projections. The dot plot median is the single most watched output from any FOMC meeting. It's what every headline is about, what every trader reacts to, what moves markets in the minutes after the release.

Full bracket markets on the actual projected numbers give traders the ability to express a specific view on where the Fed sees rates, growth, and inflation going rather than just a directional bet. Quarterly cadence, clean numerical resolution directly from the Fed.

The balance sheet side is wide open. The Fed ended its QT program in late 2025 after a $2.4 trillion reduction in assets since 2022 and the question now is what comes next. Whether the Fed stays neutral, resumes tightening, or eventually moves back toward QE is one of the most watched debates in institutional fixed income because it directly affects long-end rates, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite across the entire market.

Systematic recurring markets around balance sheet direction at each FOMC meeting would give traders a way to express that view. This is the kind of thing macro desks and fixed income traders would come to the platform specifically to trade.